Budget options

Teacher contract

Also under Budget crisis

The teachers’ agreement ends 30 June 2027; each half point on the next moves the FY2028 gap $66,942 (ours).

The gap at each settlementour estimate
FY2028 gap (ours)FY2032 gap (ours)
FY2028 gap (ours)FY2032 gap (ours)
0.0% a year$397,128$868,286
2.5% a year$731,838$2,627,631
3.0% a year$798,780$3,000,710
3.5% a year$865,722$3,381,105
4.0% a year$932,664$3,768,921
5.0% a year$1,066,548$4,567,253

Ours: only the salary growth rate changes. Our model assumes 4.0%.

1 · The facts

  • 30 June 2027

    the teachers’ agreement runs to

    contract

  • 2.5%

    scale increase, FY2025

    contract

  • 4.0%

    scale increase, FY2026

    contract

  • 3.5%

    scale increase, FY2027

    contract

  • 10.33%

    the three, compounded

    contract

  • $54,670

    bachelor’s, first step, FY2027

    contract

  • $110,287

    doctorate, top step, FY2027

    contract

  • 4.0%

    yearly salary growth our model assumes

    our estimate

  • $66,942

    FY2028 gap, per half point settled (ours)

    our estimate

  • $731,838

    FY2028 gap at a 2.5% settlement (ours)

    our estimate

  • $1,066,548

    FY2028 gap at 5.0% (ours)

    our estimate

  • —

    the terms of the next agreement

    not published

2 · What it shows

  1. 1

    The agreement raised the scale 2.5%, 4% and 3.5%: 10.33% compounded.

  2. 2

    Our model assumes salaries grow 4.0% a year from FY2028; that is our assumption.

  3. 3

    At a 2.5% settlement the FY2028 gap would be $731,838; at 5.0%, $1,066,548 (ours).

  4. 4

    A lower settlement is borne in pay by the people on the scale.

The gap at each settlement, everything else held
FY2028 gapnot from the booksFY2032 gapnot from the books
0.0%$397,128$868,286
2.5%$731,838$2,627,631
3.0%$798,780$3,000,710
3.5%$865,722$3,381,105
4.0%$932,664$3,768,921
5.0%$1,066,548$4,567,253

Ours: the projection with only the salary growth rate changed. The rate applies to the whole salary line, not only the teachers’ scale.

Sources

What changed

Version 15 — updated September 20, 2026