Budget crisis
The structural gap
lunenburgbudgetproject.org — written by the Lunenburg Budget Project, an independent tool for residents. Not affiliated with the Town of Lunenburg, the School Committee or the school district. The data this page is computed from: /data/topics/crisis.json
On our projection the school budget is $932,664 short in FY2028 and short every year after: keeping today’s schools costs 5.18% more each year, while revenue grows 3.22% a year and slows. A cut lowers the cost line once; only a rate changes where it heads.
| Level service cost (ours) | Revenue for the schools (ours) | |
|---|---|---|
| FY2028 | $28,361,400 | $27,428,736 |
| FY2029 | $29,841,940 | $28,306,678 |
| FY2030 | $31,411,781 | $29,206,656 |
| FY2031 | $33,076,943 | $30,129,229 |
| FY2032 | $34,843,891 | $31,074,970 |
| FY2033 | $36,719,566 | $32,044,466 |
| FY2034 | $38,711,428 | $33,038,317 |
| FY2035 | $40,827,492 | $34,057,143 |
| FY2036 | $43,076,376 | $35,101,574 |
| FY2037 | $45,467,347 | $36,172,261 |
Our projection from the FY2027 adopted budget. The space between the lines is the gap, and it widens every year.
1 · The gap
$932,664
projected gap, FY2028 (ours)
our estimate
$4,675,101
projected gap, FY2033 (ours)
our estimate
$1,396,847
more for level service, FY2028 (ours)
our estimate
$856,448
more revenue for the schools (ours)
our estimate
2 · The rates
5.18% a year
cost growth, keeping today’s schools as they are
our estimate
3.22% a year
school revenue growth, FY2028 (ours)
our estimate
2.5% a year
levy limit growth, set by Proposition 2½
law
$261,240
health insurance’s part of the gap (ours)
our estimate
3 · What would prevent cuts
every year
40.6 new commercial developments, every year
our estimate
every year
Chapter 70 growing 11.32% a year, not 2.71%
our estimate
FY2028–FY2029
all four service cuts at once: $1,495,880 a year
our estimate
FY2028 only
a 59% pay cut for every administrator: $932,664
our estimate
FY2028 only
a tax override of $932,664 a year
our estimate
79% of FY2028
cut every administrator the law allows: $736,468 a year
our estimate
72% of FY2028
a 5% pay cut for all school staff: $669,420 a year
our estimate
64% of FY2028
staff pay 40% of health premiums, not 25%: $599,769
our estimate
41% of FY2028
cut 60% of software and devices: $383,205 a year
our estimate
40% of FY2028
cut every sport, club, band and art: $376,207 a year
our estimate
17% of FY2028
athletics fees that pay for sports: $158,007 a year
our estimate
13% of FY2028
cut the office lines only: $125,030 a year
our estimate
11% of FY2028
fees that pay for band and clubs: $106,244 a year
our estimate
9% of FY2028
the highest bus fares possible: $81,746 a year
our estimate
4 · What it adds up to
- 1
On our arithmetic the schools are $932,664 short in FY2028 and $4,675,101 in FY2033.
- 2
Level service wants $1,396,847 more in FY2028; revenue brings $856,448.
- 3
Costs grow 5.18% a year; revenue 3.22% a year, slowing toward the 2.5% cap.
- 4
Health insurance puts the most into the gap: $261,240 of $932,664.
- 5
No single program cut or fee covers FY2028; all four at once, $1,495,880, cover FY2028 and FY2029.
- 6
Only new growth or faster Chapter 70 prevents cuts every year.
Start here
The gap
- Projected school gap →Run forward on our assumed rates, the schools are $932,664 short in FY2028 and $4,675,101 in FY2033.
- Level service cost →Keeping the same schools costs $1,396,847 more in FY2028, by our estimate: $28,361,400 in all.
- FY2028 revenue increase →The schools’ share of new revenue in FY2028 is $856,448 by our estimate, against $1,396,847 of costs.
Why it comes back
What has happened
- FY2027 cut size →The workbook puts the adopted FY2027 school budget $761,001 below Level Service; the addendum states $868,918.Also under Budget options
- Announced cuts →The district named 158 reductions in 9 budget documents across 5 cycles; none records what became of a post.Also under School programs, Budget options
- The FY2027 override →Both FY2027 override questions failed on 16 May 2026: $2,400,000 by 899 to 1,748, $3,300,000 by 766 to 1,883.Also under Budget options
Cuts
- Extracurricular cuts →Cutting every extra still funded saves $376,207 by our grouping, 40.3% of the FY2028 gap.Also under Budget options
- Classroom positions →At $89,096 a position (ours), the FY2028 gap is 10.5 positions; FY2027 already cut 4 classroom teachers.Also under Budget options
- School user fees →At their limits, bus and activity fees would add $187,990 by our estimate: 20.2% of the FY2028 gap.Also under Budget options
Overrides and reserves
- Override duration →A school-only override that held five years would be $3,414,456 by our arithmetic; ten years, $7,442,839.Also under Budget options
- Townwide or school-only →Of the $2,400,000 Tier 1 question, $1,600,000 was for the schools; the May 2024 one named only the schools.Also under Budget options
- Free cash for schools →Kept above the 5% floor, $794,872 could be redirected, $137,792 short of the FY2028 gap (our arithmetic).Also under Free cash, Budget options
Growth and the state
- Development needed →Growth alone would need $2,153,691 of new levy a year (ours); the best year on record added $630,220.
- New growth →New growth added $518,650 to the FY2026 levy limit, 1.64% of the prior limit, on top of Proposition 2½.Also under Homes and taxes
- Business building pace →Non-residential new growth averaged $19,421,113 a year in FY2024–FY2026, 3.3 times the pace before it.Also under Homes and taxes
- Chapter 70 needed →For state aid alone to hold the gap, Chapter 70 would grow 11.32% a year (ours); we assume 2.71% a year.
- Total state aid →The state’s cherry sheet carries $11,244,422 for Lunenburg for FY2026; Chapter 70 is 82.1% of it.Also under State aid
- State aid growth →Our projection grows all state aid 2.71% a year; the cherry sheet’s median yearly rise was 2.80%.Also under State aid
- Foundation budget →The state priced Lunenburg’s schools at $22,073,946 for FY2026; Chapter 70 equals 41.8% of that.Also under State aid
Pay and insurance
- Teacher contract →The teachers’ agreement ends 30 June 2027; each half point on the next moves the FY2028 gap $66,942 (ours).Also under Budget options
- Salary line and staffing →Held to 2.5% while pay rises 4.0%, the salary line loses 2.2 positions a year, by our arithmetic.Also under Budget options
- Options under the law →Chapter 32B leaves the town 7 routes and bars 4; the PEC agreement holds 3 of them until 30 June 2029.Also under Health insurance